Ecological Models

Niche-based ecological models were developed to predict the impacts of climate change on tree species distributions. Due to the slow rates of migration for long-lived tree species, unprecedented climate change will likely result in a mismatch between the climate that trees are currently adapted to and the climate that trees will experience in the future. Thus, matching forest tree species to their climate niches in a changing climate is critical in adaptive forest resource management. Modelling the climatic niches of forest tree species and projecting their shift in the future periods, therefore, are important essential steps in developing adaptive forest resources management strategies.

For details on model development, application, and results, please see the Niche-based Ecological Models tab in the right-hand menu.

Process-based ecological models

Process-based ecological models were used to explore the biophysical and bio-physiological interactions in an ecosystem to assess the impacts of climate change. This approach allows for the inclusion of factors from various aspects of the ecosystem including climatic factors, physiological attributes of the species, and specific site variables. The model Physiological Principles in Predicting Growth (3-PG) was used. Additionally, fire management under climate change was examined from several different facets including analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence.

For details on model development, application, and results, please see the Process-based Ecological Models tab in the right-hand menu.